We develop Theories of Change from scratch or adapt / update existing efforts in both diagrammatic and narrative form. These set out how the intervention is intended to work, the assumptions upon which this is based and, the wider context in which it is working. More complex Theories of Change also consider the precise causal mechanisms that lead from one step to the next and alternative mechanisms to the same outcomes.

Process evaluation aims to understand the functioning of an intervention, by examining implementation, mechanisms of impact, and contextual factors. At Winning Moves, we most often use process evaluation in combination with other methods.

Winning Moves designs and implements methods that provide information about the observed changes or ‘impacts’ brought about by an intervention. We have experience in a range of approaches to try and establish the cause of observed changes and impacts including theory-based approaches, experimental and quasi-experimental methods.

Theory-based

We are practitioners of a variety of theory based impact evaluation methods to understand the scale of observed changes or ‘impacts’ brought about by an intervention and how they have come about. Methods with which we are experienced include realist evaluation, contribution analysis, process tracing, contribution tracing and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA).

Experimental

Where feasible we consider the use of experimental impact evaluation methods to collect and analyse comparable data from a control group to those supported by an intervention to attribute any measured change amongst those supported to the intervention. We are familiar with the different variants of Randomised Control Trials (RCTs) and their potential application.

Quasi-experimental

We design and implement quasi-experimental impact evaluation methods to collect and analyse observed outcomes or impacts from a ‘control’ group that did not receive the intervention, which can be compared to outcomes or impacts from the intervention group. Experience includes Propensity Score Matching and Regression Discontinuity Design.

Our capabilities include economic analysis (e.g. cost effectiveness analysis), cost benefit analysis to examine the costs and benefits of action and service change, and to quantify value for money for interventions to allow their relative effectiveness to be considered.